nice post. agreed on many of the points, especially the missing vowel thing.
(btw, here's another perspective on that..."Web 2.0 and the Letter "e" : The Interview" : http://www.cerado.com/web20-interview-with-e.htm )
Surely you mean "an interesting couple of months" ...
There is a difference this time around. In the bubble time frame there was a belief that some how eyeballs will translate to revenue - but no one broke the code.
This time there is a monetization vehicle that offers a glimmer of hope - Google Adwords and brethren hold out the carrot that if you have vistors, atleast some will click on display ads.
Not all will succeed - but there wasnt a readily available monetization vehicle before and now there is.
I don't think it is as different as you think this time around. During the dot-com boom, those people who didn't try to deny thousands of years of economic history believed that those eyeballs would be looking at banner ads, and that would pay the bills. Google AdWords and others like it are just another, somewhat more advanced flavor of the banner ad.
Vincent - I am not saying its a panacea but the amount of money being spend on online media advertizing is also an order of magnitude higher than it was in the bubble.
Just look at GoogleAd revenue growth or check IAB stats ( $12B in 2005). AOL is considering dropping some subscriber fees because they will make some of it up in ad revenue if they just kep the eye balls.
Increased spending on online ads + more context specific monetization vehicles - that is certainly 'different' than the last time around.
I can proudly say that even though I had a $90 million marketing budget I never went for a Super Bowl ad back in the day. And believe me, lots of folks were encouraging me to do so. ; )
While there is a lot in common with the dot com boom there are also some differences. One of the biggest is that some people are spending time making a good product, remaining frugal while doing so, and building thier business via cost effective marketing methods.
Given the new realities of Web development there are also opportunities to improve upon some old dot com ideas that did not make it the first time around or did but are very, very dated.
The rule to succeed then is the same as the rule to succeed now.
Everything in moderation.
I have wondered to myself and aloud where do businesses like YouTube get off violating copyright and if the rumoured price tags for selling aren't just fuelling a Bubble 2.0 for this Web 2.0? I mean, don't get me wrong - I like the video for Pet Shop Boys' 'Rent' as much as the next guy or girl my age, but surely there is something fundamentally wrong with a business which is founded on something so basic. Did we learn nothing from Napster or is Web 1.0 and its lessons 'so yesterday'?
PS: no missing vowels here - I write from Britain and I use British spelling..
I can't agree with you more, the next few months/years (depending how long this all lasts) is going to be very interesting to see if all these new start ups can be sustainable businesses. I dont think a lot of them can, but it is sure going to be interesting to see who comes out on top.